Just The Facts, Ma’am, Said Detective Joe Friday. The Dragnet Cop Should Be Around Today…

by Hank Boerner – August 11, 2016

The brilliant presidential advisors and later, U.S. Senator from New York, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, said it best: Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.”

As I watch the current presidential campaign, the good Senator’s comments come to mind. So do the comments of Detective Sergeant Joe Friday on Dragnet (radio and TV) about “facts.” (“Just the facts, ma’am,” he would say.)

Too often, it seems, facts and fiction became intertwined and inseparable in the running commentary of the 2016 presidential election.

Let’s look at some economic facts in the hope that he American voting public can be better informed when watching the television news reports or attending a political rally.

Let’s start with these exciting facts for investors: Today as I write this (August 11) the three major stock market indexes all reached all-time highs, simultaneously. The last time that happened was 1999 – 17 years ago.

Today the most followed market stock market indexes stand at:

  • Dow Jones Industrial: 18,613
    S&P 500: 2,185
    NASDAQ: 5,228

Where were we on January 20, 2009, as the new president was being sworn in? (Recall that was the time of the financial markets meltdown and investment portfolios were heading to 40% losses.)

  • Dow Jones Industrial: 7,949
    S&P 500: 805
    NASDAQ: 1,140

This week’s market news is pretty encouraging for 401-k and IRA owners, eh?

Let’s look briefly at national unemployment rates:

  • July 2016: 4.9 per cent
    January 2009: 7.8% (would rise to 9.9% by December)

The web platform Politifact (published by the Tampa Bay Times in Florida) provided a scoreboard of the economy under President Barack Obama in June 2012 as he neared the end of his first term.

Fact: Overall inflation was 4.3% in 2008 / “Zero” was at in 2009

In the months leading up to the start of the Obama Presidency in January 2009, layoffs were peaking and the number of jobs lost — according to the U.S. Department of Labor — exceeded an estimated 7 million jobs…going, going gone as the Great Recession took the national economy into the abyss.

In December 2008 the U.S. Department of Labor described the situation this way: “…unemployment rose to 7.2% (from 6.8% the prior month); employment [fell that month] by 524,000; 1.9 million jobs were lost in the last four months of 2008; job losses were large and widespread across major industry sectors.”

There were 2.6 million jobs lost just in the year 2008 alone (fact source is CNN Money). The job losses in the U.S.A. were astronomical as the stock market cratered in 2008 and into 2009.

Consider: In September 2008: some 400,000-plus jobs were gone. In November 2008: 800,000 jobs lost. Layoffs continued into 2009, into the early months of the new administration in Washington (April 2009: almost 700,000 jobs disappeared).

Think of the ripple effect — if one industrial job was lost, economists’ rule of thumb was that three or four or more other jobs were disappearing, too.

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities reported on August 10, 2016: Employers have added nearly 200,000 jobs each month since early 2010. (Remember: early in 2009 Congress passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.)

After going deep into non-growth GDP territory in 2008, 2009 and toward 2010, we moved back into positive growth in 2010 and pretty much stayed there until today.

Check out the interesting charts at: http://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/chart-book-the-legacy-of-the-great-recession.

Last month — July 2016 — the country added 255,000 jobs.

Whether you believe the White House records or not, in March 2016 that was the source for this set of data:  The private sector had added 14.4 million jobs over 73 straight months of job growth.

There was not all good news of course, and you can check out the full report with its data and charts here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2016/04/01/employment-situation-march

Look at the job gains as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor this year (2016) alone:

January:168,000
February: 233,00
March: 186,000
April: 144,000
May: 234,000
June almost 300,000
July: 255,000

And let’s not remove from our memory the preservation of an important industry employing hundreds of thousands of men and women in this country: vehicle manufacturing and marketing. Politifact noted (September 2012) that employment for car makers and their suppliers was up 250,000 jobs from 2009, with sales rising for Ford (13%), Chrysler (14%) and General Motors (10%) in 2011.

That’s a long way from 2008: GM out of cash to pay bills, Chrysler reeling as well; Ford in better shape financially having mortgaged literally all of its assets just before the financial meltdown on Wall Street. (The New York Times, November 27, 2006 — USD$19 billion as factories, equipment, offices, patents, trademarks, ownership in Volvo and other businesses were mortgaged.)

The rescue of the auto industry began under the presidency of George W. Bush, using TARP funds in his last months in office (fact), and continued under the presidency of Barack Obama. The heart of U.S. industrial power, the auto & truck manufacturing industry, was rescued by the Federal government with U.S. taxpayer money — which has been paid back for the most part. And jobs were protected.

“Make America Great Again,” the apparently trademarked slogan for the 2016 campaign (should we put a “TM” or “patent pending” or “R” here?), does have a certain resonance. In economic reality terms, however, it does not reflect the true condition of the economy after eight years of the current occupant of the White House. (He-whose-name-may-not-be-mentioned-in-certain-circles. OK, it’s Barack Obama.)

We as voters are entitled to the facts – -not fear mongering, not the offering up of misleading “facts” or the rhetoric of provocateurs. Having facts we can make better informed decisions as part of our civic responsibility — that is, when we enter the voting booth.

This probably comes across as a partisan commentary, favoring one side or the other. My intention is to present facts — the word descending down to our time from the ancient Latin, meaning “…the thing that is done, the thing known to be true…” vs. factitious, descending as well from Latin “…imagined, made up, artificial, not real or genuine…”

As fictional detective Joe Friday used to say on the popular television series “Dragnet”: “…just the facts, ma’am, just the facts…”

Or in the expression of this era…just sayin’.

White House – Executive Orders – Another Way to Get Things Done

by Hank Boerner

So — House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner does not like the flow of Executive Orders coming out of the Obama White House.  And he intends to sue the President.  As Speaker Boehner criticizes our chief executive officer, the Executive Orders continue to flow.  The most recent EO focus:  a new effort to address the nation’s immigration system,,,on his own, without congressional action.

Speaker Boehner would definitely not like to have been around when another high-profile elected Republican lived at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue — 100 years later to still be considered a “Master of EOs” — that was President Theodore Roosevelt, our 26th President.

“TR” is acknowledged as the chief executive officer who created the modern presidency. Characteristics that have described the man:  active, energetic, extremely smart, both populist-and-conservative, outdoorsman, conservationist, big game hunger, cowboy, Eastern establishment, author, soldier, statesman, scholar, Nobel Peace prize winner, Harvard dandy…and more. That was our Teddy.  (Yes, the Teddy Bear is named for him.)

President Roosevelt in his time faced a Congress that was at times hostile to his ideas, and often “absent” from the Capitol. In the early 1900s, members of the House were elected in November and took office in January; the President was elected in November and sworn in early in March. (The direct election of member of the US Senate would come with the 18th Amendment after TR left office.)  So the US Congress could meet and then go home before the new president even arrived on the scene.

The Republican leadership was not always pleased to have their Teddy down the street in the White House. TR was kicked upstairs by leaders of his own party to the vice presidency to get him out of the way, and then President William McKinley, Jr. was assassinated, and as fellow Republican US Senator Mark Hannah famously said in 1901: “Now look. That damned cowboy is President of the United States!”

One of issues that the President had was that as TR won election to his full term as President in 1904, he announced that he would not run for a third term, following the tradition all the way back to the precedent set by President George Washington. And so, he became “lame duck” as he set out in his second term; often the Congress could ignore him (and both Republicans and Democrats often did).

But Teddy would not be ignored!  He issued 1,081 Executive Orders during his 2,728 days in the White House – an average of an EO issued very two-and-one-half days in office!  Dozens were EOs that affect us even today, a century later.

Teddy lived by a code. In 1886, long before the White House years, he observed:  “It is not what we have that will make us a great nation.  It is the way in which we use it.”  Speaking of being a “conservative,” he said: ” The only true conservative is the man who resolutely sets his face toward the future.”  One of the great essays of President Roosevelt was his “Man in the Arena,” as he observed:  It is the man in the arena who should be praised, the man who is out there, fighting the big battles, even if the battles end in defeat. Glory comes to those who “spend themselves in a worthy cause…”  Like trying to get things done when occupying the highest elected office in the land.

I think he might have a harder time today (than back in his day) dealing with the political gridlock in our capital city, and with the great philosophical divisions in our society.  But he would not duck the good fight – he would be right there in the arena of public opinion, fighting the good fight.

As the great outdoorsman TR worried that the vast frontiers were disappearing in the expansion of the United States of America, he took his pen and signed off on many EOs to single-handedly create national parks, game refuges, national bird sanctuaries, and the National Forest Service. It would be several years after he left office that the present-day National Park Service would be created by the Congress (August 1916, signed into law by President Woodrow Wilson).

Other Presidents – and Their EOs

While TR was an exception in his day, other presidents have used the approach to make things happen.  Executive Orders are official documents through which the President of the United States of America manages the operations of the Federal Government.  All modern era presidents used them.

According to the official National Archives web site, President Barack Obama has issued 175 orders since 2009, with the record showing:  39 EOs signed in 2009; 35 EOs in 2010; 34 EOs in 2011; 39 EOs in 2012; 20 EOs in 2013; and 8 EOs in 2014 as of today’s Federal Register accounting.

Today, the President said he would take action on his own, without Congress, “…to fix as much of our immigration system as I can…” He directed his team to recommend steps he can take this summer and then he would act on those steps “without delay.”

Expect more EOs to be coming out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.  And more howls from up the street on Capitol Hill.

While considering this course of action – we can ask — is President Obama “unusual” in taking such steps?  Well…no.

Consider the recent record:

George W. Bush – over 8 years / two terms  – issued 291 Executive Orders in his 2,922 days in office

William Clinton – 8 years – 364 EOs over 2,922 days in office

George HW Bush – 4 years – 169 EOs over 1,461 days in office

Ronald Reagan – 8 years – 381 EOs over 2,922 days in office

Richard Nixon – although not serving out his full second term (“Watergate” intervened), he signed off on 346 Executive Orders – that was almost one every few days during his two terms.

(Note source:  Per PBS – Nightly News Hour compilation)

The point is – our CEOs are expected to get things done when elected, first or second term, whether lame duck or just starting out.  The Executive Order is a powerful tool of the office.  As TR demonstrated for his successors down to today, when Congress can’t or won’t act — the modern day President can and will.

Stay Tuned — this summer and on into the counting days of the Obama Administration we will be seeing more EOs coming.  And some will be cheered / others jeered.  And the talking heads of cable TV, the prominent Chattering Class, will have lots of material to work with!